Defense community perspectives on uncertainty and confidence judgments     

Marcus King  Sherri Goodman 《Climatic change》2011,108(4):803-809

In 2007, the CNA Military Advisory Board (MAB), an expert panel composed of 11 retired admirals and generals from the United States, identified climate change as a “threat multiplier” for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world. (CNA MAB National security and the threat of climate change 2007)The Department of Defense reached a similar conclusion in last year’s Quadrennial Defense Review–a legislatively mandated analysis of the Defense Department’s strategy and priorities. This document frames the long-term course for policy decision-making at the highest levels. The reports demonstrate that climate change and energy are now mainstream elements of national security planning, and can be assessed within the frameworks used to evaluate other threats, risks, and responses. However, the exact magnitude of the threat posed by climate change is difficult to calibrate in part because the language used by scientists to predict uncertainty and the confidence levels of judgments is not sufficiently clear. The defense community has a vast amount of experience exploring and dealing with uncertainty. Scientists trying to better describe the effects of climate change may be able to draw lessons from the defense community’s approach to uncertainty including how to better communicate findings to wide audiences including policy-makers.  相似文献   

Quantitative multi-risk analysis for natural hazards: a framework for multi-risk modelling   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Jochen Schmidt  Iain Matcham  Stefan Reese  Andrew King  Rob Bell  Roddy Henderson  Graeme Smart  Jim Cousins  Warwick Smith  Dave Heron 《Natural Hazards》2011,58(3):1169-1192

This paper introduces a generic framework for multi-risk modelling developed in the project ‘Regional RiskScape’ by the Research Organizations GNS Science and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd. (NIWA) in New Zealand. Our goal was to develop a generic technology for modelling risks from different natural hazards and for various elements at risk. The technical framework is not dependent on the specific nature of the individual hazard nor the vulnerability and the type of the individual assets. Based on this generic framework, a software prototype has been developed, which is capable of ‘plugging in’ various natural hazards and assets without reconfiguring or adapting the generic software framework. To achieve that, we developed a set of standards for treating the fundamental components of a risk model: hazards, assets (elements at risk) and vulnerability models (or fragility functions). Thus, the developed prototype system is able to accommodate any hazard, asset or fragility model, which is provided to the system according to that standard. The software prototype was tested by modelling earthquake, volcanic ashfall, flood, wind, and tsunami risks for several urban centres and small communities in New Zealand.  相似文献   

Stock Origins of Subadult and Adult Atlantic Sturgeon, Acipenser oxyrinchus, in a Non-natal Estuary, Long Island Sound     

John R. Waldman  Tim King  Tom Savoy  Lorraine Maceda  Cheryl Grunwald  Isaac Wirgin 《Estuaries and Coasts》2013,36(2):257-267

The anadromous acipenserid Atlantic sturgeon Acipenser oxyrinchus was listed in 2012 under the U.S. Endangered Species Act as having four endangered and one threatened distinct population segment (DPS) in American waters. Anthropogenic activities outside of natal estuaries, particularly bycatch, may hinder the abilities of some populations to rebuild. Most Atlantic sturgeon are residential for their first 2–6 years within their natal estuaries, whereas older subadults and adults may migrate to non-natal estuaries and coastal locations. Previous studies demonstrated that subadults and adults aggregate during summer at locations in Long Island Sound (LIS) and its tributary, the Connecticut River; however, the population origin of these fish is unknown. Because of its geographic proximity and relatively robust population, we hypothesized that the LIS and Connecticut River aggregations were almost solely derived from the Hudson River. We used microsatellite nuclear DNA analysis at 11 loci and mitochondrial DNA control region sequence analyses to estimate the relative contributions of nine Atlantic sturgeon populations and the five DPS to these aggregations using individual-based assignment tests and mixed-stock analysis. From 64 to 73 % of specimens from LIS were estimated to be of Hudson origin. Similarly, 66–76 % of specimens from the Connecticut River were of Hudson origin. However, moderate numbers of specimens were detected from distant spawning populations in the southeastern DPS and from two populations once thought to be extirpated or nearly so, the James River (6–7.3 %), and the Delaware River (7.6–12 %). Additionally, specimens were detected from all five DPS in both the LIS and Connecticut River collections. These results highlight the difficulty of evaluating the status of individual Atlantic sturgeon populations because of the propensity of subadults and adults to migrate for extended duration to distant sites where they may be vulnerable to anthropogenic disturbances.  相似文献   

Assessment of chemical dispersant effectiveness in a wave tank under regular non-breaking and breaking wave conditions     

Li Z  Lee K  King T  Boufadel MC  Venosa AD 《Marine pollution bulletin》2008,56(5):903-912

Current chemical dispersant effectiveness tests for product selection are commonly performed with bench-scale testing apparatus. However, for the assessment of oil dispersant effectiveness under real sea state conditions, test protocols are required to have hydrodynamic conditions closer to the natural environment, including transport and dilution effects. To achieve this goal, Fisheries and Oceans Canada and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) designed and constructed a wave tank system to study chemical dispersant effectiveness under controlled mixing energy conditions (regular non-breaking, spilling breaking, and plunging breaking waves). Quantification of oil dispersant effectiveness was based on observed changes in dispersed oil concentrations and oil-droplet size distribution. The study results quantitatively demonstrated that total dispersed oil concentration and breakup kinetics of oil droplets in the water column were strongly dependent on the presence of chemical dispersants and the influence of breaking waves. These data on the effectiveness of dispersants as a function of sea state will have significant implications in the drafting of future operational guidelines for dispersant use at sea.  相似文献   

The Stanley unconformity in Lake Huron basin: evidence for a climate-driven closed lowstand about 7900 <Superscript>14</Superscript>C BP,with similar implications for the Chippewa lowstand in Lake Michigan basin     

C. F. M. Lewis  C. W. HeilJr.  J. B. Hubeny  J. W. King  T. C. MooreJr.  D. K. Rea 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2007,37(3):435-452

J.L. Hough in 1962 recognized an erosional unconformity in the upper section of early postglacial lake sediments in northwestern Lake Huron. Low-level Lake Stanley was defined at 70 m below present water surface on the basis of this observation, and was inferred to follow the Main Algonquin highstand and Post-Algonquin lake phases about 10 ¹⁴C ka, a seminal contribution to the understanding of Great Lakes history. Lake Stanley was thought to have overflowed from the Huron basin through the Georgian Bay basin and the glacio-isostatically depressed North Bay outlet to Ottawa and St. Lawrence rivers. For this overflow to have occurred, Hough assumed that post-Algonquin glacial rebound was delayed until after the Lake Stanley phase. A re-examination of sediment stratigraphy in northwestern Lake Huron using seismic reflection and new core data corroborates the sedimentological evidence of Hough’s Stanley unconformity, but not its inferred chronology or the level of the associated lowstand. Erosion of previously deposited sediment, causing the gap in the sediment sequence down to 70 m present depth, is attributed to wave erosion in the shoreface of the Lake Stanley lowstand. Allowing for non-deposition of muddy sediment in the upper 20 m approximately of water depth as occurs in the present Great Lakes, the inferred water level of the Stanley lowstand is repositioned at 50 m below present in northwestern Lake Huron. The age of this lowstand is about 7.9 ± 0.3¹⁴C ka, determined from the inferred ¹⁴C age of the unconformity by radiocarbon-dated geomagnetic secular variation in six new cores. This relatively young age shows that the lowstand defined by Hough’s Stanley unconformity is the late Lake Stanley phase of the northern Huron basin, youngest of three lowstands following the Algonquin lake phases. Reconstruction of uplift histories for lake level and outlets shows that late Lake Stanley was about 25–30 m below the North Bay outlet, and about 10 m below the sill of the Huron basin. The late Stanley lowstand was hydrologically closed, consistent with independent evidence for dry regional climate at this time. A similar analysis of the Chippewa unconformity shows that the Lake Michigan basin also hosted a hydrologically closed lowstand, late Lake Chippewa. This phase of closed lowstands is new to the geological history of the Great Lakes. This is the ninth in a series of ten papers published in this special issue of Journal of Paleolimnology. These papers were presented at the 47th Annual Meeting of the International Association for Great Lakes Research (2004), held at the University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. P.F. Karrow and C.F.M Lewis were guest editors of this special issue.  相似文献   

TAOS – The Taiwanese‐American Occultation Survey     

M. J. Lehner  C. Alcock  T. Axelrod  F. Bianco  Y.‐I. Byun  W.‐P. Chen  K. H. Cook  R. Dave  I. de Pater  J. Giammarco  S.‐K. King  T. Lee  J. Lissauer  S. L. Marshall  S. Mondal  T. Nihei  J. Rice  M. Schwamb  A. Wang  S.‐Y. Wang  C.‐Y. Wen  Z.‐W. Zhang 《Astronomische Nachrichten》2006,327(8):814-817

The Taiwanese‐American Occultation Survey (TAOS) seeks to determine the number and size spectrum for small (∼3 km) bodies in the Kuiper Belt. This will be accomplished by searching for the brief occultations of bright stars (R ∼ 14) by these objects. We have designed and built a special purpose photometric monitoring system for this purpose. TAOS comprises four 50 cm telescopes, each equipped with a 2048 × 2048 pixel CCD camera, in a compact array located in the central highlands of Taiwan. TAOS will monitor up to 2 000 stars at 5 Hz. The system went into scientific operation in the autumn of 2005. (© 2006 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)  相似文献   

A Simple Model Of The Convective Internal Boundary Layer And Its Application To Surface Heat Flux Estimates Within Polynyas     

Ian A. Renfrew  John C. King 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2000,94(3):335-356

A simple model of the convective (thermal) internalboundary layer has been developed for climatologicalstudies of air-sea-ice interaction, where in situobservations are scarce and first-order estimates ofsurface heat fluxes are required. It is amixed-layer slab model, based on a steady-statesolution of the conservation of potentialtemperature equation, assuming a balance betweenadvection and turbulent heat-flux convergence. Boththe potential temperature and the surface heat fluxare allowed to vary with fetch, so the subsequentboundary-layer modification alters the fluxconvergence and thus the boundary-layer growth rate.For simplicity, microphysical and radiativeprocesses are neglected.The model is validated using several case studies.For a clear-sky cold-air outbreak over a coastalpolynya the observed boundary-layer heights,mixed-layer potential temperatures and surface heatfluxes are all well reproduced. In other cases,where clouds are present, the model still capturesmost of the observed boundary-layer modification,although there are increasing discrepancies withfetch, due to the neglected microphysical andradiative processes. The application of the model toclimatological studies of air-sea interaction withincoastal polynyas is discussed.  相似文献   

欧洲莱茵河流域洪水管理行动计划述评   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

王润  姜彤  LORENZ King 《水科学进展》2000,11(2):221-226

旨在提高和改善莱茵河的防洪和流域可持续管理水平的“洪水管理行动计划”于1998年开始实施,其内容和措施以及欧洲国家在流域可持续发展管理方面的思路和模式对我国江河流域的防洪和洪泛区管理可资借鉴.  相似文献   

Biot dispersion for P‐ and S‐wave velocities in partially and fully saturated sandstones     

M.S. King  J.R. Marsden  J.W. Dennis 《Geophysical Prospecting》2000,48(6):1075-1089

Ultrasonic compressional‐ and shear‐wave velocities have been measured on 34 samples of sandstones from hydrocarbon reservoirs. The sandstones are all of low clay content, high porosity, and cover a wide range of permeabilities. They were measured dry and brine‐saturated under hydrostatic effective stresses of 10, 20 and 40 MPa. For eight of the sandstones, ultrasonic velocity measurements were made at different partial water saturations in the range from dry to fully saturated. The Gassmann–Biot theory is found to account for most of the changes in velocities at high effective stress levels when the dry sandstones are fully saturated with brine, provided the lower velocities resulting when the dry sandstone initially adsorbs small amounts of moisture are used to determine the elastic properties of the ‘dry’ sandstone. At lower effective stress levels, local flow phenomena due to the presence of open microcracks are assumed to be responsible for measured velocities higher than those predicted by the theory. The partial saturation results are modelled fairly closely by the Gassmann–Biot theory, assuming heterogeneous saturation for P‐waves.  相似文献   

The population of faint transients in the Galactic Centre   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

A. R. King 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2000,315(3):L33-L36

BeppoSAX has detected a population of faint transient X-ray sources in the Galactic Centre. I show that a simple irradiated disc picture gives a consistent fit to the properties of this population, and that it probably consists of low-mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs) that have evolved beyond their minimum orbital periods of ∼80 min. Since all post-minimum systems are transient, and neutron star LMXBs are more common than black hole LMXBs in the Galaxy, the majority of these systems should contain neutron stars, as observed. This picture predicts that the Galactic Centre transients should have orbital periods in the range ∼80–120 min, and that most of them should repeat in the next few years. In this case, the total number of post-minimum transients in the Galaxy would be considerably smaller than the usual estimates of its total LMXB population. I discuss possible reasons for this.  相似文献